All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25	470.5	14.5
JUL ’25	482	14
DEC ’25	450.25	3.25

Soybeans
MAR ’25	1025.25	26.25
JUL ’25	1049.75	26.5
NOV ’25	1031	17.25

Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25	530.75	-3.25
JUL ’25	554.5	-0.5
JUL ’26	618.5	4.5

K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25	551.75	1.5
JUL ’25	569.25	2.25
JUL ’26	615.5	5

Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25	584.25	0.75
JUL ’25	601.5	1
SEP ’25	612.25	1.25

S&P 500
MAR ’25	5885.5	-73.75

Crude Oil
MAR ’25	75.68	2.44

Gold
APR ’25	2744.7	27.6

Grain Market Highlights

Corn futures soared on Friday after the USDA made a larger-than-expected cut to 2024 U.S. corn yield estimates. March futures finished the week with a gain of 19-3/4 cents.
Soybean futures ended the week on a positive note as the USDA lowered the 2024 soybean yield by 2.6%, reducing ending stocks to 380 million bushels.
March soybean oil futures surged over 6.5% on Friday, while soybean meal futures were slightly lower.
Wheat futures finished mixed, pressured by USDA data showing U.S. winter wheat plantings exceeding both last year’s figures and pre-report estimates.
To see the updated U.S. drought monitor as well as the South American 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits scroll down the other charts/weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since May 2024 and continuous corn up roughly 25% from the pre-harvest low in August, it is time to reward this rally.

2025 Crop:

Target 455 – 475 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.
The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.
Major resistance on the December 2025 chart is near the 480 futures level. A close above this level could signal a potential breakout from the current range.
Watch for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would help protect current sales in the event of a prolonged rally.

2026 Crop:

Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

The corn market ended the week with strong gains, driven by a bullish USDA WASDE report. March corn rose 19 ¾ cents for the week. With the strong close, the market will be watching the price action on Monday for follow-through of the buying strength today.
USDA weekly export sales for the week ending January 2 totaled 455,000 MT—a marketing-year low and well below expectations. The decline was largely due to six countries reducing or canceling prior sales. Despite this, U.S. corn export sales remain 30% ahead of last year. Market watchers will monitor whether this trend persists.
The USDA cut its 2024-25 corn yield forecast by 3.8 bu/acre to 179.3 bu/acre, reducing production by 276 mb. While demand estimates were trimmed by 75 mb, carryout fell to 1.540 billion bushels, below market expectations. Quarterly grain stocks for corn were reported at 12.074 billion bushels—100 mb below expectations and 90 mb less than last year, with 7.66 billion bushels stored on farms as of November 30.
Despite dry conditions, Argentina’s crop ratings remain above average, though slightly below last year. Rain chances are expected to improve in the second half of January, offering potential relief to stressed crops.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

We remain focused on the 1060–1080 range versus March ’25 for recommending additional sales of your 2024 crop.
Key reasons for targeting this higher range include:
- Funds holding significant short positions across the soy complex—soybeans, meal, and oil.
- The entire soy complex is macro-oversold, a condition that historically favors buying over selling.
- Seasonal opportunities may improve as the South American growing season progresses.

2025 Crop:

The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.
Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following a surprisingly bullish USDA report. The big leader was soybean oil which ended 6.59% higher in the March contract which was supported by anticipation of the clean fuel tax credit by the Biden administration. Soybean meal ended the day slightly lower.
Today’s WASDE report held a bullish surprise in the way of a yield cut which was much larger than expected. Yields were cut to 50.7 bpa from 51.7 bpa last month, and this was lower than the average trade guess of 51.6 bpa. Ending stocks fell to 380 mb from 470 mb. Both Argentinian and Brazilian soybean production were surprisingly unchanged from last month.
Better Argentinian weather has been pressuring soybean meal, but soybean oil has taken an opposite trend over the past week with large gains both yesterday and today. The Biden administration is expected to release its climate model for clean tax fuel credits next week which trade has been waiting for and has been very friendly to soybean oil.
Today’s Export Sales report was very poor with the USDA reporting an increase of 10.6 million bushels of soybean export sales in 24/25 and 14,700 bushels for 25/26. This was well below the lowest trade estimate. Primary destinations were to the Netherlands, China, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 58.1 mb were above the 22.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed in mixed fashion, as today’s report data was neutral to bearish for the wheat complex. Another move higher for the U.S. Dollar Index after a stronger than expected jobs report was also negative for wheat prices, despite a higher close for Paris futures.
The USDA pegged U.S. 2024/25 wheat ending stocks at 798 mb, slightly above December’s 795 mb estimate. Global ending stocks also rose modestly, from 257.9 mmt to 258.8 mmt. Quarterly stocks as of December 1 were reported at 1.570 bb, up from 1.421 bb last year. Winter wheat planted acreage was estimated at 34.1 million acres, exceeding the average trade guess of 31.3 million and up about 2% from last year.
Russian wheat exports were revised lower by 1 mmt to 46.0 mmt, while Ukrainian exports fell by 0.5 mmt to 16.0 mmt. Australian and Argentine production estimates remained steady at 32.0 mmt and 17.5 mmt, respectively.
In an update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of January 9, Argentina’s 24/25 wheat crop was 98.2% harvested, with the production estimate remaining unchanged at 18.6 mmt; this is above the USDA’s guess today. For reference, last year’s crop totaled 15.1 mmt.
According to a Russian agricultural regulator, Russia exported 73.1 mmt of grains in 2024, up 4 mmt year over year. Wheat accounted for 57.5 mmt of this total. Combined exports of grains and grain products reached 86.7 mmt, an increase from 83.9 mmt in 2023.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.
For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.
For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.