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1-08 End of Day: Grains Consolidate Ahead of Friday’s USDA Report

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 454 -4
JUL ’25 465.75 -2.5
DEC ’25 445 -1.25
Soybeans
MAR ’25 994.5 -2.75
JUL ’25 1018 -1
NOV ’25 1009 -2.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 536.25 -6.25
JUL ’25 557 -6
JUL ’26 616.5 -7
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 550.25 -5.5
JUL ’25 567.75 -5.25
JUL ’26 611.5 -4.75
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 585 -9.75
JUL ’25 603.25 -7.75
SEP ’25 613.75 -7.75
S&P 500
MAR ’25 5957.5 3.25
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 72.64 -0.93
Gold
APR ’25 2701.3 11

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn prices edged lower Wednesday ahead of Friday’s WASDE report, pressured by weaker ethanol production and declines in wheat.
  • Soybean futures posted minimal losses as improved precipitation forecasts in Argentina weighed on prices.
  • Wheat futures fell midweek after early strength, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar.
  • See the 15-day South America precipitation anomaly map and U.S. 8–14-day temperature outlook in the charts/weather section below.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Cash

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Puts

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since June and continuous corn up roughly 23% from the pre-harvest low in August it is time to reward this rally.
  • If you missed previous recommendations or need cash flow in the near term, sell into market strength to get current.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 455 – 460 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.
  • The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the US for 2025.
  • Major resistance for the December 2025 chart sits near the 480 futures level, a close above this area would be a potential breakout of the current range.  
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec ’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

  • Corn futures fell Tuesday amid choppy trade ahead of Friday’s USDA report, pressured by weaker wheat, potential Argentine weather improvement, and a strong U.S. dollar.
  • Afternoon weather models are forecasting improved rainfall chances for Argentina by mid-January which should bring relief to the center of the farming region in the country that has been under stress from recent hot, dry weather. The recent weather pattern has had an impact, but that could be minimized by this potential rainfall.
  • Weekly ethanol production dipped to 324 million gallons/day last week, using 111 mb of corn—still ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA marketing year targets.
  • The January WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on January 10 will be pivotal for stockpile and demand insights, with choppy trading expected ahead of the release. Expectations are for corn production to be limited, reducing the possible carry out total to 1.680 billion bushels.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Cash

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Puts

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1060-1080 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though, patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

  • Soybeans traded on either side of unchanged throughout the day but ultimately closed lower ahead of Friday’s WASDE report with an improved Argentinian weather forecast pressuring both soybeans and soybean meal while soybean oil ended the day higher.
  • Pre-report estimates for soybeans in Friday’s WASDE see ending stocks falling by 12 mb to 458 mb. Yield is expected to be reduced by 0.1 bpa to 51.6 bpa, but the bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt
  • Hedge funds reduced net short positions to 42,447 contracts as of December 31, cutting 25,436 contracts amid Argentine and Brazilian weather concerns.
  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year. While encouraging, these flash sales have slowed down in recent weeks.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All wheat classes posted modest losses, pressured by weaker corn and soybeans, a stronger U.S. dollar, and mixed Paris milling wheat futures.
  • Friday’s report includes the first look at 2025 U.S. winter wheat acreage, estimated at 33.5 million acres, slightly above 2024.
  • Pre-report estimates for December 1 wheat stocks average 1.578 bb (down from September’s 1.986 bb but above last year’s 1.421 bb). U.S. wheat ending stocks are forecast at 807 mb, with global carryout expected to rise slightly to 258.2 mmt.
  • According to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, hard red spring wheat stocks stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin are down 24% year over year at 12.73 mb, for the week ending January 5. However, stocks were up 406,000 bu when compared with the week prior.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Cash

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Puts

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Cash

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Puts

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Cash

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Puts

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: 15-day South America Precipitation Anomaly Map