01-21 End of Day: Soybeans Lead Grains Higher Tuesday
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAR ’25 | 490 | 5.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 501 | 6.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 459.75 | 3.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| MAR ’25 | 1067.25 | 33.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 1087.25 | 32 |
| NOV ’25 | 1049.75 | 22 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAR ’25 | 558.75 | 20 |
| JUL ’25 | 581.75 | 21.25 |
| JUL ’26 | 637 | 18 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAR ’25 | 575.5 | 27 |
| JUL ’25 | 594.5 | 27.25 |
| JUL ’26 | 636.25 | 21.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAR ’25 | 604.5 | 21 |
| JUL ’25 | 625.75 | 22.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 636.25 | 21.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| MAR ’25 | 6078.25 | 44.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| MAR ’25 | 75.96 | -1.43 |
| Gold | ||
| APR ’25 | 2783.8 | 8.8 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Strong weekly export inspections helped to push corn higher to start the week as July futures edged over the $5 level.
- Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, taking out last week’s high. South American weather worries drove soybean meal futures over 4.6% higher while soybean oil closed slightly higher.
- A sharp drop in the US Dollar Index and the ongoing cold snap with minimal snow cover for the Plains sent wheat futures sharply higher to start the week.
- To see the one-week GFS precipitation forecast for South America and the 8–14 day US temperature outlook both courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell DEC ’25 Cash
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.
- Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.
- Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.
- March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has nearly returned to the price range of 487 to 508 (vs. December ’24), where Grain Market Insider recommended the first 2024 corn crop sales during the summer of 2023 and spring of 2024.
2025 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.
- First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.
- Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.
- Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.
- Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.
- Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.
2026 Crop:
- Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn prices ended the trading day higher, driven by growing concerns over the heat and dry weather in South America and tariff delays.
- Recent rainfall in Argentina’s primary growing region has not alleviated concerns about the ongoing drought, which threatens to harm yields. After nearly a month-long drought and recent heatwaves in the area, some analysts argue that the rain arrived too late to reverse the damage caused by the drought. Last week, the 24/25 corn crop was cut to 48 mmt (1.89 bb) by the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange, due to adverse weather conditions, this is down from the 50 mmt it previously estimated.
- Weekly export inspections for corn totaled 61 mb, surpassing the 51 mb needed to meet the USDA’s forecast of 2.450 bb. Year-to-date, corn exports stand at 758 mb, up 31% from the same period last year. The top destinations were Japan with 18 mb, Mexico with 13 mb, and South Korea with 11 mb.
- AgRural estimates that Brazil’s second corn crop is less than 1% planted, a significant decrease from the 5% average for this time of year.
Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.
Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 38,882 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net long 292,228 contracts.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
Active
Sell MAR ’25 Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop.
- Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract entered the 1060–1080 target range again on Tuesday (1/21), reaching an intraday high of 1068.
- From the Lows: At Tuesday’s close of 1067.25, the contract stood over one dollar above its December low of 947.00, marking a solid rally worth capitalizing on.
- Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.
2025 Crop:
- Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.
- Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.
2026 Crop:
- Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, taking out the recent high from the 14th in the March contract. The dollar was significantly lower which supported all of the grains today, but rain that is delaying the Brazilian harvest was supportive as well. Soybean meal led the complex higher with a gain of $13.80 in March, while bean oil was only slightly higher.
- Weather in South America remains mixed: Argentina saw weekend rain, while persistent rainfall in Brazil is delaying the harvest and raising potential quality concerns.
- With President Trump officially in office, trade was likely expecting tariffs to be ordered yesterday along with the slew of executive orders. While that was not completed yesterday, it is expected to go into effect on February 1 which could pressure markets.
- Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 63,445 contracts, which left them with a net long position of 34,833 contracts. Funds are nowhere near record long and have the ability to continue buying if weather remains a concern.
The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.
Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 63,445 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net long 34,833 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed higher, led by Kansas City futures. A cold snap in the central U.S., minimal snow cover, a weaker U.S. dollar, and fund short-covering boosted prices.
- Weekly wheat inspections at 9.6 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 488 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace; exports are estimated at 850 mb for 24/25, which would be up 20% from the year prior.
- According to Chinese customs data, December wheat imports totaled 150,000 metric tons, down 74.5% year-over-year. Year-to-date imports of 11.18 million metric tons are down 7.6% from last year.
- Russia exported $87.3 million in wheat to China in 2024, a 2.5x increase from 2023’s $34.7 million. Australia remained the top supplier with $1.08 billion in exports.
- The new military-run state buyer for Egypt is rumored to have purchased a significant volume of wheat directly from Russia. While this has not yet been confirmed, there is also talk that four Egyptian ships have been sent to Russia for loading, with a combined capacity of 250,000 mt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.
- For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
2025 Crop:
- Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
- Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
- Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.
2026 Crop:
- Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.
- With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.
Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,756 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 94,393 contracts.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
- For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
2025 Crop:
- Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
- Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
- Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
- If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
2026 Crop:
- Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.
Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,748 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 37,606 contracts.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.
- For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
2025 Crop:
- Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
- Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
- Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
2026 Crop:
- Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.
Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,087contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 28,298 contracts.
Other Charts / Weather
