Corn is trading lower this morning after meeting resistance over the past two days at the $4.80 level in the March contract. Yesterday’s ethanol production report showed production below the average trade estimate but still strong.
In southern Brazil, the harvest of the first-crop corn and the planting of the second-crop safrinha corn have begun. The state of Paraná reported that 1% of the first-crop corn has been harvested, and 2% of the safrinha corn has been planted. Despite some drier areas, first-crop yields are generally expected to be good.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 500k and 1,000k tons with an average guess of 800k. This would compare to 445k last week and 1,271k a year ago at this time.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower to start the day as March futures fall from their Monday high of $10.64. While US ending stocks have tightened, world stocks are still quite large. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Expectations for Brazil’s soybean crop have been lowered slightly, with one analyst reducing their estimate by 1 million tons to 170 million. Rainfall over the past week favored northern and eastern Brazil, while southern Brazil experienced mostly dry conditions. The forecast shows favorable rain prospects for northern Brazil, with increased chances of rainfall in southern Brazil later this week and into next week.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 900k tons with an average guess of 575k tons. This would compare to 289k last week and 783k a year ago at this time.
Wheat is trading lower this morning as futures struggle to rally significantly off their contract lows and primarily stay in rangebound trade. The higher dollar has kept prices suppressed.
The wheat market continues to underperform compared to corn and soybeans, with the U.S. dollar remaining a significant headwind for wheat prices. Despite a 70-basis-point decline yesterday, the dollar index is still up 9% from its September low of 99.86.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 100k and 400k tons with an average guess of 275k tons. This would compare to 111k last week and 708k a year ago at this time.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
