All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
MAR ’24	443.5	-3.5
JUL ’24	464	-4.25
DEC ’24	477.25	-4.5

Soybeans
MAR ’24	1227.25	3
JUL ’24	1246.75	2.5
NOV ’24	1201.25	-0.25

Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24	582	-14
JUL ’24	605.25	-13.25
JUL ’25	650.25	-6.5

K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24	601.5	-13.75
JUL ’24	609	-14.25
JUL ’25	644	-9.75

Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24	690.75	-8.75
JUL ’24	710.25	-7.25
SEP ’24	721	-5.75

S&P 500
MAR ’24	4788.75	-27.75

Crude Oil
MAR ’24	72.16	-0.63

Gold
APR ’24	2052.1	-19.3

Grain Market Highlights

After trading on both sides of unchanged, carryover weakness from lower wheat and expectations of large US and world corn supplies pressed the corn market to close lower on the day.
The soybean market saw choppy two sided trade to start the week, and ended the day mixed as old crop gained on new crop. Record NOPA crush numbers helped to lend support, along with sharply higher soybean meal, while sharply lower bean oil added resistance.
Weak weekly export inspections and a sharply higher US dollar weighed heavily on the wheat complex today as all three classes closed lower, with both Chicago and KC showing double digit losses to start the week.
The US dollar gapped higher on the day’s opening and gained nearly 1% at the time of writing, to trade above the 50-day moving average for the first time since November. While the gap higher appears to be technical in nature, the higher trade, nevertheless, likely added resistance to the grain markets.
To see the updated US 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 2-week total precipitation forecasts for Brazil and Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, NOAA, and CPC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. After posting a high in October, front month corn futures have steadily drifted sideways to lower with a general lack of bullish news and an estimated carryout around 2.1 billion bushels. If the January USDA report fails to provide a bullish catalyst to the market, it remains at risk of continuing to languish in the same pattern. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. For now, Grain Market Insider will continue to hold tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 485 ¾ on the bottom and 602 on the top. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop prices as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a sideways to lower trend without a bullish catalyst. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending making additional sales and buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Dec ‘23 560 and 610 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn futures finished the session lower, pressured by the prospects of large US and global corn supplies, and selling pressure in the wheat market triggered by a jump in the value of the US dollar. March corn lost 3 ½ cents on the session, but did hold above Friday’s report day lows.
The corn market continues to look for positive news after Friday’s USDA Grain Stocks and WASDE report. US corn carryout was raised by 30 mb to 2.162 bb, but the 12 mmt rise in Chinese corn production helped surge world ending stock above expectations, reflecting a potential record Chinese corn crop. The heavier global supplies keep pressure on a market searching for demand.
Demand will stay a focus for the corn market and the need for export sales is important. The USDA announced a flash sale of 126,700 mt (5 mb) of corn to Mexico.
USDA reported weekly export inspections at 876,000 mt (34.5 MB) for the week ending January 11. Total inspection has reached 548 mb, up 29% year over year, the USDA is forecasting a 26% jump.
Managed funds are staying aggressively short the market and growing this position. On last week’s Commitment of Traders eport, funds were short 230,723 net contracts of corn. The position is likely to be larger after the strong selling pressure to end the week.

Above: Since the end of December, the March corn contract has slid lower with only minor reversals. After breaking through 460, the market runs the risk of retreating toward the 415 support level without some bullish input. The market currently shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive if a bullish catalyst arises to turn prices back higher. If one does enter the market, nearby upside resistance could be found around 470 and again near 481, with heavy resistance between 495-500.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jan 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 33,397 contracts between Jan. 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 230,723 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Front month soybeans recent downside breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range indicates that there is risk that prices may continue to retreat toward 1180, as forecasts for improved South American weather lessen the potential for the record large global carryout to be reduced. Given the potential of a downside breakout, Grain Market Insider recently recommended adding to sales as the current price level is still historically good. It’s been disappointing how the market has been unable to push higher despite the South American production concerns. Because of that, Grain Market Insider’s concern is that, if the weather pattern doesn’t remain adverse, the path of least resistance could be lower. Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities, as well as potential re-ownership strategies.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. The Nov ’24 contract recently broke through the downside of the 1233 – 1320 range that has been in place since the end of July. With this downside breakout and considering the bullish influence of adverse South American weather which appears to be improving, Nov ’24 runs the risk of retreating towards 1150 unless another bullish catalyst enters the market. If prices find support and turn back higher, Grain Market Insider recently recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated 2024 production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Grain Market Insider will also continue to watch for any sales opportunities.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day higher with support from higher soybean meal and a record-breaking NOPA crush report. Last week’s trade was rough with March soybeans losing 32 cents after a bearish WASDE report on Friday, but they ended the week significantly off their report lows.
The biggest story in soybeans today was the NOPA crush report that showed 195.33 million bushels of soybeans crushed in December, which was well above the average trade guess and a record for any month. The crush was up 10% year over year and up 5% from the prior December high.
While soybean meal saw higher trade following the NOPA report, soybean oil moved lower. Soybean oil stocks were pegged at 1.36 billion pounds, which was above the average trade guess of 1.291 billion pounds, but stocks were still down 24% year over year.
The USDA reported weekly export inspections at 1.264 mmt (46.4 mb) for the week ending January 11. Total inspections have reached 940 mb, down 21% year over year. The USDA is forecasting a 12% drop.
The highlights of Friday’s WASDE report were an unexpected increase in US soybean yields for 23/24 and a decline in Brazilian production that was much smaller than expected or is likely realistic. The USDA currently estimates Brazilian soy production at 157 mmt which is down from their last guess of 161 mmt, but most analysts are guessing that number is closer to 150, and some are even in the low 140’s due to the early drought and heat.

Above: Soybeans have steadily retreated after leaving a 6-cent gap between 1290 ¾ and 1296 ¾. The market is showing signs of being extremely oversold, which can be supportive if bullish information enters the market to turn prices around. If prices do turn back higher, resistance rests around the price gap and again near the 50-day moving average. Otherwise, the next major support level comes in near the November ’21 low of 1181.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jan. 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 19,619 contracts between Jan. 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 31,248 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

All three US wheats finished with losses; both Chicago and KC wheat showed double digit losses. Weakness stemmed from a sharply higher US Dollar Index, which actually gapped higher today. As of this writing, it is up 0.99 at 103.40. This higher dollar should make US exports less competitive, which is not helped by the fact that the USDA increased their estimate of Russian and Ukrainian exports last week.
The USDA reported weekly wheat inspections at 8.6 mb, which brings the 23/24 total inspections to 381 mb. That is below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s goal and is also down 16% from last year. On Friday, the USDA left their estimate of 23/24 wheat exports unchanged at 725 mb.
Although they have not made any changes to the export ban on wheat, they did suggest that they have a better than expected wheat crop. Said to be around 114 mmt, this is above the USDA’s projection, and may indicate that they will not need to import wheat this year. If true, this could add to the bearish tone in the market.
Over the past three weeks, 1.3 mmt of ag goods on ocean vessels are said to have been rerouted to avoid traveling through the Suez Canal and Red Sea region. Ships want to avoid conflict in that area, but this is also resulting in increased global freight costs. Reportedly, an average of 80 mmt of grain passes through the Red Sea every year with just over a third of that going to China.
According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, 2.1 mmt of grain has been exported so far this month, up from 1.7 mmt last year. While no explanation was offered regarding the monthly increase, it should be noted that their total grain exports are down from last year since the season began July 1. The total so far is 20.6 mmt versus 24.5 mmt last year and of that total, 8.2 mmt is wheat.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been rangebound, largely between 650 on the bottom and 675 on the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices break out of the topside of this range toward the 690 – 705 area, we will consider taking advantage of the rally and making sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The March contract is closing through the bottom end of the recent range and 100-day moving average lends a bearish tilt to the market, which runs the risk of drifting lower toward the next major level of support near 556. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to turn prices higher, overhead resistance remains near 650.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jan. 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,289 contracts between Jan 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 57,988 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. After posting an 80-cent rally in late November and early December, front month KC wheat has languished and drifted lower while retracing about 50% of the upward move. Managed funds continue to carry a significant short position, and even though bullish headwinds like weak US demand and low world wheat prices remain, this could fuel a return to higher prices as winter weather risks add volatility to the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices become over-extended.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat rejected an attempt to move higher near 650 and turned lower to test the bottom end of the recent range around 619. If the market continues to retreat, the next area of support remains near 595 and 575. Overhead, nearby resistance comes in around 650 and again between 675 – 680.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jan. 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 230 contracts between Jan. 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 34,266 contracts.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. For much of the second half of last year, driven mostly by fund selling and slow US export demand, front month Minneapolis wheat slowly stair-stepped lower until hitting the November low. During this time, managed funds also established a record net short position. Since then, with the market mostly sideways, the November low of 697 ½ has held, and prices have pierced the 50-day moving average just once. Although bearish headwinds remain, the large fund net short position could fuel a short-covering rally if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to move prices to close above the 50-day moving average. Back in June, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 725 – 775, and again north of 800.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. After trading to a peak of 871 ¾ last August, the Sept ’24 gradually retreated to a low in November in concert with the front month as managed funds built a record large net short position mostly on weak US export demand. And while Sept ’24 has failed to close above the 50-day moving average since late August, the 726 ¼ November low remains intact. Although bearish headwinds remain, the large fund net short position could fuel a short-covering rally if prices move higher and close above the 50-day moving average. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat, and in November recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position as July ’24 KC wheat showed signs of support around 630. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. For now, Grain Market Insider remains prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The breach of 700 in the March contract could indicate further weakness with the next area of major support down near 669. The market does show signs of being oversold, which is supportive if the market turns back higher. Overhead initial resistance lies around 700 and then again between 721 and 734.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jan. 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,905 contracts between Jan. 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 28,637 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather