Corn is trading slightly higher this morning ahead of the USDA report at 11 am central. While yields are expected to be slightly lowered, there could be some surprises from South American production.
Pre-report estimates for Today’s WASDE report see corn ending stocks falling slightly from the December estimate to 1,674 mb as yield estimates are expected to be lowered by 0.4 bpa to 182.7 bpa.
The average guess for Argentinian corn production is slightly below December’s estimate while Brazil’s is expected to be unchanged. World ending stocks are expected to fall slightly.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning following gains in yesterday’s trade. Funds hold a decent sized net short position and could be taking profits ahead of today’s report. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
Estimates for US soybean ending stocks see a slight decline to 458 mb due to a slightly lower yield estimate at 51.6 bpa. World ending stocks are expected to increase.
The bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning after two consecutively lower closes that were likely driven down by increases in the US dollar recently.
Pre-report estimates for wheat in Friday’s report see ending stocks increasing slightly by 7 mb to 802 mb. There should be few changes to wheat in this report.
Estimates for today’s report see world wheat ending stocks virtually unchanged at 257.9, but ongoing weather issues in much of the world could cause that number to drop. Estimates for Russian production seem to keep falling.
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