Corn is trading lower this morning after posting a slight gain in yesterday’s session. Funds are holding a very large net long position heading into Friday’s report, so profit taking and position squaring may be seen ahead of then.
Pre-report estimates for Friday’s WASDE see corn ending stocks falling slightly from the December estimate to 1,674 mb as yield estimates are expected to be lowered by 0.4 bpa to 182.7 bpa.
The USDA may not make changes to South American production yet, but Brazilian corn production is estimated at 128 mmt while Argentina is estimated at 47 mmt. Both of these numbers are on par with the last USDA guesses.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning after posting a slight loss yesterday. Improved chances for rain in Argentina have pressured markets and have hit soybean meal in particular. Soybean oil is trading higher this morning.
Pre-report estimates for soybeans in Friday’s WASDE see ending stocks falling by 12 mb to 458 mb. Yield is expected to be reduced by 0.1 bpa to 51.6 bpa.
The bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after two consecutively higher days. The dollar is trading higher again this morning which may be pressuring futures.
Pre-report estimates for wheat in Friday’s report see ending stocks increasing slightly by 7 mb to 802 mb. There should be few changes to wheat in this report.
Condition ratings for winter wheat declined during December in Kansas and Oklahoma according to the USDA despite a slight improvement in the dry conditions. The last wheat ratings saw 55% of the crop rated good to excellent which was the best rating for that time of year in 6 years, but conditions declined.
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