Today, the USDA reported an increase of 14.5 mb of corn export sales for 23/24.
Ethanol production data yesterday came in 205,000 barrels per day higher than last year, but still down from last week. In any case, this may be helping nearby corn to find support around the 460 level.
Expectations for next Friday’s USDA report are for a reduction in Brazilian corn production due to early drought and hot weather that has affected growing conditions and planting intentions. Private estimates are about 8-10 mmt below the current USDA estimate of a 129 mmt crop.
About 45% of the US Corn Belt is still said to be experiencing drought conditions in some form. But a storm in the southwest that is expected to move eastward may help to recharge soil moisture in parts of the Midwest.
Today, the USDA reported an increase of 7.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24.
The extended forecast for Mato Grosso, Brazil has good rain coverage over the next week or so. The extended forecast has less moisture, but with much improved conditions as of late, this will likely continue to weigh on the soybean market.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning, adding to pressure on soybean futures. Meal in particular continues to be in a freefall, and technically the March contract looks like it may soon test the October low of $365.30.
As in corn, the USDA is likely to reduce their estimate of Brazilian soybean production, with some private estimates a full 10 mmt below the current USDA projection at 161 mmt. While this would be supportive to prices, it should be noted that this decline may be well offset by the production of other South American countries.
Today, the USDA reported an increase of 4.8 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.2 mb for 24/25.
All three US wheat classes are in positive territory this morning, possibly on renewed rumors that China is looking to purchase more US wheat.
The wheat market’s reversal yesterday is a bullish signal which may also be in part why futures are higher this morning – they are following through on this momentum.
Russian wheat export values are said to be near $245 per mt FOB, which is an increase from the lows reached in November. However, this is still cheap wheat, and is sure to keep pressure on US exports.
In addition to next week’s WASDE report, the winter wheat seedings report will also be released. Current expectations are for a decline in winter wheat acreage by 1.5 to 3.0 million acres, which would be supportive to futures prices.
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