All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
MAR ’24	460.75	-5.75
JUL ’24	483.75	-5
DEC ’24	494	-4.75

Soybeans
MAR ’24	1256.25	-11.25
JUL ’24	1269.75	-13.25
NOV ’24	1208.5	-12.25

Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24	616	2.5
JUL ’24	635	3
JUL ’25	664.25	2.25

K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24	628	2.25
JUL ’24	635.25	3.25
JUL ’25	667.5	3.75

Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24	712	0.75
JUL ’24	728.5	-0.5
SEP ’24	737.25	-0.5

S&P 500
MAR ’24	4725.25	-4.25

Crude Oil
MAR ’24	73.71	1.35

Gold
APR ’24	2072.1	2.2

Grain Market Highlights

Sliding soybean prices and weekly corn export sales numbers that were below expectations and at a new marketing year low, pressured corn futures to print a fresh contract low for the March contract.
Weakness in both soybean meal and oil added to the selling pressure in soybeans along with poor weekly export sales, as traders continue to sell soybeans on the improved SA weather outlook and poor export sales.
Slowing demand for soybean meal from both domestic users and exporters has pressured basis and futures as crushers continue to process beans and add to supplies. Even though falling product values have pressured crush margins, they remain profitable.
All three wheat classes saw both sides of unchanged and closed mostly higher on follow through strength from yesterday’s positive move, and on rumors of more Chinese interest in the US wheat market.
To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and Brazil’s 2-week forecast total precipitation, courtesy of NWS, NOAA, and NDMC scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. After posting a high in October, front month corn futures have steadily drifted sideways to lower with a general lack of bullish news and an estimated carryout around 2.1 billion bushels. If the January USDA report fails to provide a bullish catalyst to the market, it remains at risk of continuing to languish in the same pattern. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. For now, Grain Market Insider will continue to hold tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 485 ¾ on the bottom and 602 on the top. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop prices as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a sideways to lower trend without a bullish catalyst. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending making additional sales and buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Dec ‘23 560 and 610 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

March corn futures saw additional selling pressure to end the week, closing the session down 5 ¾ cents and establishing a new life of contract low. Selling in the soybean complex and poor weekly export sales totals help pull corn lower. For the week, March corn futures were 10 ½ cents lower.
The USDA released this morning the weekly export sales for last week and corn sales were disappointing. US exports registered new sales of 367,500 mt (14.5 mb) for the week ending December 28. This was a marketing year low, and down 70% from last week. Currently, total sales are trending 37% ahead of last year’s pace and in line with USDA marketing year expectations.
Corn demand was a concern with yesterday’s ethanol production report. Ethanol production slipped to 1,049,000 barrels/day last week. Ethanol stocks jumped to 23.6 million barrels. Stocks likely grew due to weak gasoline demand during the holiday window. Last week, 105 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production, and that pace is currently slightly ahead of USDA forecasts.
Managed Money continues to push their short position in the grain markets. On last week’s Commitment of Traders report, managed funds were short 177,626 net corn contracts, and with the price weakness this week, likely only added to the position as bullish news is still lacking in the corn market.
Next week will likely bring choppy trade and the market looks toward the key USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and WASDE reports to be released on Friday, January 12.

Above: To start the year, March corn broke through 470 at the bottom end of the range that was held since the middle of November and is showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive if prices turn higher. Currently, major support rests around 460 with the next major support area near 415. Above the market, resistance remains near the 50-day moving average and again between 495-500.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Front month soybeans recent downside breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range indicates that there is risk that prices may continue to retreat toward 1180, as forecasts for improved South American weather lessen the potential for the record large global carryout to be reduced. Given the potential of a downside breakout, Grain Market Insider recently recommended adding to sales as the current price level is still historically good. It’s been disappointing how the market has been unable to push higher despite the South American production concerns. Because of that, Grain Market Insider’s concern is that, if the weather pattern doesn’t remain adverse, the path of least resistance could be lower. Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities, as well as potential re-ownership strategies.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. The Nov ’24 contract recently broke through the downside of the 1233 – 1320 range that has been in place since the end of July. With this downside breakout and considering the bullish influence of adverse South American weather which appears to be improving, Nov ’24 runs the risk of retreating towards 1150 unless another bullish catalyst enters the market. If prices find support and turn back higher, Grain Market Insider recently recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated 2024 production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Grain Market Insider will also continue to watch for any sales opportunities.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans closed lower to end the first week of the year along with losses in both soybean meal and oil. Rains that began to fall in Brazil last weekend, and that continue to fall, have pressured prices despite the upcoming likely event that the country’s production will be lowered.
For the week, January soybeans lost 41 ¾ cents, March soybean meal lost $16.60, and March soybean oil lost 55 cents. As of last week’s CFTC report, non-commercials still held a net long position of 4,767 contracts in soybeans, but after this week’s losses they have likely flipped to a net short position.
Today’s export sales report was a poor show with increases of just 7.4 mb of soybean exports reported for 23/24. This was down 80% from the previous week and 85% from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 36.8 mb were above the 26.4 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates, and primary destinations were to China, Spain, and the Netherlands.
As eyes begin to turn towards next week’s WASDE report, private analysts have continued to lower their estimates for Brazilian production. The US ag attaché in Brazil cut their estimate by 3.5 mmt to 158.5 mmt, but many analysts are closer to 150 mmt. When taking Argentina’s improved production estimates into account, Brazilian production would likely need to fall below 135 mmt before this year’s South American crop became smaller than last year’s.

Above: March soybeans opened the year with breaking through 1292 support, leaving a gap on the daily chart between 1290 ¾ and 1296 ¾ that the market may try to fill. If prices turn back higher to fill the gap, resistance may come in near the 50 and 100-day moving averages, while support rests below the market around 1250.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

After trading on both sides of unchanged, wheat posted a positive close in all three US futures classes, though Minneapolis futures were only up less than a penny in the front months and slightly negative July onward. The generally higher trade today may be tied to rumors that China is again interested in purchasing US wheat, but so far there has been no confirmation of that. Yesterday’s reversal is also a bullish technical signal which offered some support to today’s trade.
The USDA reported an increase of only 4.8 mb in wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.2 mb for 24/25. Additionally, shipments last week at 10.5 mb were below the 17 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s goal of 725 mb for 23/24.
Russian wheat export values have risen about $20 per ton since the November low. However, now at $245 per mt FOB, their offers are still very cheap compared to other origins. This is keeping pressure on US exports and therefore, the futures market.
US wheat futures were also able to post today’s gains in the face of a lower close for Paris Milling wheat. Also, the US Dollar Index has had a wide trading range today, breaking both above the 103 level and below the 102 level. As of this writing, it is closer to the middle of the range but still slightly negative. The direction of the dollar will be key to wheat prices as it directly affects the export market.
Next week, traders will receive the monthly WASDE report, but will also get the winter wheat seedings report. Expectations are for a reduction in winter wheat by 1.5 to 3.0 million acres. If realized, this could offer a boost to the market and may be the catalyst needed to start a short covering rally by the funds.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased their estimate of the 23/24 wheat crop production to 15.1 mmt versus 14.7 mmt last week. For reference, last year’s production was 12.2 mmt. Additionally, they said that 83.7% of the crop is harvested versus 70.9% a week ago.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Between late July and the end of November, front month Chicago wheat trended lower, driven mostly by weak US demand and lower world wheat prices. During that time, and as managed funds established most of their short position of nearly 120,000 contracts, the market became extremely oversold. Since then, as the market rallied to a high of 649 ½, China made several US SRW wheat purchases, and funds covered more than 23,000 short contracts. During that runup, Grain Market Insider recommended making an additional sale to take advantage of the elevated prices in case the rally was temporary since US wheat prices remain elevated relative to other world exporters, despite the increase in demand. If the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. From the end of July, the July ’24 contract has slowly stepped its way down to a low of 586 in sympathy with the front month contract where managed money established a large short position during that time. Since then, July ’24 rallied alongside the March ’24 contract, as the funds covered over 30k contracts of their nearly 130k short contract position. While bearish headwinds remain, the funds continue to carry a large short position and seasonals remain supportive for the addition of weather risk premium, which are two factors that could fuel further short covering and another leg up in prices. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On January 4, March Chicago wheat challenged the 600 support level and posted a bullish reversal, further strengthening the support area. If more bullish influence enters the market, prices could push higher to test overhead resistance near 650. If not, and prices begin to retreat, the next level of major support comes in near 556.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. After posting an 80-cent rally in late November and early December, front month KC wheat has languished and drifted lower while retracing about 50% of the upward move. Managed funds continue to carry a significant short position, and even though bullish headwinds like weak US demand and low world wheat prices remain, this could fuel a return to higher prices as winter weather risks add volatility to the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices become over-extended.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat rejected an attempt to move higher near 650 and turned lower to test the bottom end of the recent range around 619. If the market continues to retreat, the next area of support remains near 595 and 575. Overhead, nearby resistance comes in around 650 and again between 675 – 680.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. For much of the 2^nd half of last year, driven mostly by fund selling and slow US export demand, front month Minneapolis wheat slowly stair-stepped lower until hitting the November low. During this time, managed funds also established a record net short position. Since then, with the market mostly sideways, the November low of 697 ½ has held, and prices have pierced the 50-day moving average just once. Although bearish headwinds remain, the large fund net short position could fuel a short-covering rally if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to move prices to close above the 50-day moving average. Back in June, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 725 – 775, and again north of 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. After trading to a peak of 871 ¾ last August, the Sept ’24 gradually retreated to a low in November in concert with the front month as managed funds built a record large net short position mostly on weak US export demand. And while Sept ’24 has failed to close above the 50-day moving average since late August, the 726 ¼ November low remains intact. Although bearish headwinds remain, the large fund net short position could fuel a short-covering rally if prices move higher and close above the 50-day moving average. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat, and in November recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position as July ’24 KC wheat showed signs of support around 630. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. For now, Grain Market Insider remains prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After making a new contract low on November 27, the March contract found buying interest from its oversold status and record fund short. Since then, the market posted a bearish reversal on December 6, showing significant resistance in the 750 area. If prices can break through upside resistance, they could run toward 790. If prices retreat, nearby support could be found around 718, with further support near the recent low of 697 ½.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather